My Little World10

this is a premier league analysis thread, granted it's in the middle of an important day but i'll edit later because Fulham just beat Everton and made it all very interesting

1. MU - pld 29, 67

2 Ars - pld 30, 67

3 Che - pld 29, 64

4 Liv, pld 30, 59

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5 Eve, 56 (all played 30 unless stated)

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6 Port, 50

7 AV, 49

8 Bla, 46 

9 MCity, (29) 45

10. WH, 43 

11 Tot, (28) 35

12 Boro, 31

Wigan (29) Reading, Newcastle (29) all 28 points - wigan currently leading Bolton however

16 Sunderland 27

17 Birm (29) 26

18 Bol (28) 25

19 Ful 23

Derby 10

ok, so Derby are gone - i actually think theyll break the record for lowest performance ever - they need 15 points to save face, if they play like they did against united yesterday every week they could get a bit more respect - but theyd be up with other relegation hopefuls if they were able to do that so at least you're on the record books derby (probably got lowest gd at -50 anyway)

as for the other relegation teams, it's tight - Boro are the safe marker, which is nice for them, Spurs are almost guaranteed 11th where theyve been for months thanks to that woeful start and their game in hand is chelsea, so they pretty much were the perfect team to win the carling cup as they ain't going anywhere, likewise west ham, but they will just be thankful for points after last season

the rest are screwed, 23-28 is very tight, and yesterday i wouldve been saying 25-28 had fulham not beaten a tired everton side, if 10-man wigan hold on to their lead over bolton today that's a huge result for them and may save them

my score predictor actually predicted safety at a mere 31 points, i probably neglected the fact that relegation fights always get big results, especially as big teams (like spurs, west ham or city) will lose the motivation as they get stuck in the middle, (see fulham-liverpool end of last season)

i had fulham at 23 - which means they won't pick up a point for 8 games, unlikely now, newcastle and wigan at 31 - wigan may have that come the end of today so again unlikely, newcastle i think have a potential max of 10 points available and i was being cynical and gave them 3 of them, meanwhile i was favourable to birmingham, sunderland and reading who have achievable results

but newcastle and fulham? i think newcastle IS a possibility, despite their size, they are very poor and have 3 or 4 must win games, they are shocking, big game tomorrow against birmingham, then fulham is a huge game, nobody wants a draw there - they then have 5 games where they could take points, but noone will be easy - reading and sunderland visit in their big games, their travels look tough but attainable if they can play well for once, close call

Fulham may well recover thanks to the return of McBride and jimmy Bullard, theyve beaten Villa and Everton lately and they may just pull it off, big mountain to climb tho, still at least a win from safety - they have newcastle, derby and sunderland to feed off - a potential 9 points, altho i think theyll get 5 with 2 away draws, then reading liverpool city and pompey are unlikely to give them anything, crucial home tie against birmingham, they are very reliant on newcastle and bolton i feel

Wigan for me have too many goals in them - however they have a lot of tough games ahead - Blackburn, pompey, villa, chelsea, spurs and United last - they have home games against reading and birmingham as essentially their big games, so the win against bolton today is a massive must, and they'll need every point they can scrape from the big boys like they did against arsenal last week, they'll be close to the wire

my prediction saw bolton survive due to newcastle's poor defence, and i think they will be in the fight with newcastle to go down, possibly with fulham the other favourite - their game in hand is United and theyre losing to wigan right now, they then have city at home, potential point there, then villa and arsenal, nothing there - west ham, boro and sunderland are some more points potentially, chelsea and spurs maybe not so - may well depend on boro and west ham, the inconsistent middlers, and a huge game against sunderland at home - sunderland are shit away, haven't won away all season - so a point at least? so four games, 3 at home - i can see 6 points, which is 31, they may sink with newcastle

new boys birmingham have too much to fall i think, newcastle the only really decent home game i think, they really need that win and i think they may get it, then they need to take it to wigan, reading and fulham and a visit from city - think they may get a one or two point buffer from the drop

sunderland is all about who visits: west ham, city and boro - all winnable, oh and arsenal right at the end - that depends on arsenal's title hopes i think -very favourable away draws mean this is the time to start travelling well - newcastle, fulham and bolton are all winnable and hugely important - this is a brilliant relegation battle! sunderland have a lot of chances and should stay up

then there's second season Reading - Birmingham and fulham visit and they're going to newcastle and wigan - all of these could be results for the royals, a visit from spurs could be something and they're last game is at pride park - could be the difference for them, like sunderland they have a favourable draw i feel,

so for relegation, wigan have the toughest fixture list, Bolton and Newcastle are the poorest teams, whilst Fulham have the toughest challenge in points, i think bolton will drop, and for sheer fun newcastle in 18th, although could easily be fulham

i like how there's so many inter-relegation fights in the last 8 games - guess what that means? lots of big teams meet each other too!

as fergie predicts there will be a thrilling race, united have 3 points in hand essentially - but super sunday next week sees them meet liverpool at home, they also greet arsenal in a very important game and travel to the bridge where no-one wins but the blues - so three points? all very boring for the title but any result will be crucial for the top 3 - west ham again visit at the end of the season and will be keen to win at old trafford again, blackburn and villa are threats, and a trip to the riverside (boro) is never predictable, final game against tough wigan at the JJB - all tough but they should see it out to the end

liverpool are effectvely out and need to focus on beating everton to secure 4th, and then beating arsenal in the champ league, they play United and Arsenal in the league but they may have to sacrifice those games - their next five games are united (a), everton (h), arsenal(a)/arsenal(a)/arsenal(h) - then they need to have a run to protect fourth wth blackburn and city visiting - favourable and trips to fulham and birmingham, again favourable - they look like fourth as long as they don't lose to everton at home - then chelsea in the semi of the CL again? we all know where that leads

then there's league hopefuls arsenal, been top most of the season but theyve thrown it away with 3 successive draws i feel - they've gone off the boil, they now have to visit the bridge on 'super sunday', then need to whip bolton, liverpool visit (constantly) and then old trafford where they recently got creamed - that's going to be a league decider i feel, and it looks united - then they have 4 winnables in reading, derby, everton and sunderland

and what about dark horses Chelsea - they're suddenly within 3 points of the top, spurs their game in hand - they also hold the advantage in home games against the top 2 - at least one win would be very good, they also have boro, city, wigan everton bolton and newcastle - the easiest of the top 4 fixture list, they could come up the rear and really threaten United - who cannot slip up

then there's 5th spot, that everton loss against fulham has opened it back up - villa have unfortunately lost the plot lately and really it's down to them to challenge the toffees, portsmouth are most likely to snatch fifth but they are also favourites to win the FA cup, should they do that then everton would still get the UEFA spot
 - however everton have by far the hardest draw with liverpool, chelsea and arsenal and a porbably crucial tie against Villa, Villa really only have that and the united game to worry about so could fight back, and again Pompey could easily overtake Everton, but should they win the Cup the UEFA spot will be between Villa and Everton - all very interesting

City are outsiders, and i think as they are currently losing to spurs they are just about out of it

 however, there is such a thing as the fair play league and they are currently the top english team not in europe - england are currently top of the league which means they get an auto spot, rather than ballots altho that could change (4 red cards this weekend) - should everton get europe then city at present will be our representative in UEFA, as spurs qualified through the carling cup and the top teams (except chelsea obviously) top the league for some reason,so keep it clean, city!