My Little World10

Well it is Easter so it was bound to come up

firstly, christians whinge about bookies being open on good friday for the first time - whinge away, welcome to secular britain, bitches - that was easy

and then there's this little doozie - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7308997.stm

a bill on embryo research, not a huge issue here tbh - until now! in general british people have rarely given a monkeys about this sort of thing - religious types whinge, we don't listen yadda yadda 

same old same old here - and then a scottish catholic cardinal (yeah, bit of a minority) starts screaming 'frankenstein' and urges MPs to defy the whip, if they even use it - then several Labour MPs and even ministers started saying they would refuse to vote for it regardless of a whip

now my views on the actual bill aside (i support it, it's too late not to now really)

why is a minority religion getting a say? 9% of this country is catholic (or 'papist' if you're a rule britannia type) - and i doubt all of them are devout

(fyi - Labour is likely the most catholic of the 3 parties, CofE being called 'Tories at prayer' sums them up and Lib Dems generally are quite secular, being the liberals)

so c.650 seats in the commons - so around 60 catholics in a perfect world (or none, hah!), Labour have c.350 seats so c.30 catholics? (altho it's probably that most of them are in Labour) seems fair - if we're going to vote on religious grounds the only way i can tolerate it is if it's representative - say there were a hundred+ catholics, and they voted according to their 'conscience' - is that fair? they weren't elected on religious grounds, but a religion gets a bigger say than it represents nationally

this is not to advocate going back to catholic restriction pre-1829, in theory it doesn't matter if all 650 of them were catholic, as long as they don't bring their religion into politics - if they aren't elected on a platform of their personal beliefs then why are they allowing the pope to influence them? they are representatives of constituencies, if i were an MP for a firmly catholic or anti-bill constituency i would follow their line, despite my feelings - it's an unlikely scenario but serves to illustrate a point

you can object to the bill, but as a servant of the people you pledged to serve them and vote in their best interests, not your own - so like i say if the catholics are firmly against this then I can only accept around 60 'catholic' votes over this - otherwise this is a breakdown of democracy and an abuse of trust

nb i appreciate that there is other opposition to this besides catholics - but it's the biggest issue and the most repulsive 

LOST SPOILERS - YOU HEARD ME (season 4, ep 7)

Second post of the day, impressive huh?

well i've been reading lost theory forums again, and i need to comment, mainly because of all the idiotic ideas (ie that i don't agree with) 

so what happened in "Ji Yeon"? as you might have guessed it's a sun/jin episode - and it's about the baby, who will be called ji yeon because jin likes it (girls name) 

the stuff on the island is fairly bland - juliet tells jin sun had an affair so sun won't run off to locke's camp and will leave the island - jin gets over that and knows the baby is his

then we find out that Sun is off the island - she goes into labour, calls out for her husband and eventually has the kid

Jin has a flashback too - and the 'twist' is that it's a flashback, he is basically running around trying to get a toy panda for a newborn and desperately trying to get to the hospital - turns out he's only just got married and is delivering the panda as a gift on business - there are several heavy clues to this (apart from it's lost - and as they weren't together therefore not the same thing) year of the dragon (subtle to us westerners) was 2000-1 and his mobile phone is a very old model

we then see Hurley visit Sun and the baby, in a suit and they go to a grave - at this point i was yelling out "oh no, no, no" and it is Jin's grave - but with a twist, the date of death, shown twice for obvious use --- is 22/9/04 - the crash date, so ?? - bugger

there's also scenes on the ship, the captain is quite forthcoming, he explains that Charles Widmore paid for it to look for Ben, because somehow he faked the plane crash and put 300+ bodies in it, we also see a crew member kill herself and hear that it's quite common on the boat, so no-one does anything - then we see the remnants of a suicide shooting and the janitor has to come clean it - the janitor is none other than kevin johnson, otherwise known as michael, bout time he showed up

so we know the 5th 'oceanic six' - Sun, along with Kate, Jack, Hurley and Sayid

who is the final one? - they won't confirm if it's Aaron, he wasn't on the flight technically but he came off the island as Kate's kid, i think he won't be as I believe the story is that Kate saved the other 'Oceanics' who are six in number, but it's possible

so who is possible? i saw a theory that when the hatch blew up jack, kate, sawyer, hurley, sayid, jin and sun were all away from the area, some captured by the others, the other 3 on the boat - this makes sawyer an interesting bet, he's certainly possible, could be anywhere

who else? - can't be desmond or juliet as they're not oceanic, claire seems unlikely because Aaron is with Kate, why would Rose and Bernard be split up? although Rose's trust in Jack is perhaps telling - that leaves Sawyer, Michael or Locke out of the main characters - of course it could be a random, why should it be one of the main characters? they aren't really special, Michael seems unlikely considering his ties to Ben and time off the island already, i guess walt is a remote possibility too

it is clear there is a massive cover-up, the freighter crew are clearly dead or covering the island survivors, as it appears the 6 are covering for the others who are still alive on the island, and how they explained kate and sun's children i don't know

so is Jin dead? they have deliberately left it open, apparently the actor got a DUI recently and that has been common with Lost fatalities (ana-lucia, libby, eko i think) - many people have said Sun effectively grieving at the grave implies he's dead - but as this is the common theory I'll say Lost will go against that - i believe this is her way of speaking to Jin, she is very famous and it seems appropriate had he died in the crash, they are being watched closely and have to be incredibly careful in what they say - so it could be a pretense for Jin still being on the island, all we know is he's not 'oceanic six' 

as for Michael being on the boat, well who didn't see him being the spy? Harold Perrineau has been in the credits all season and he had to appear sooner or later, he can only be in 7 episodes now - interesting question i saw is 'has desmond ever met michael?' (as sayid and desmond met 'kevin') i think they missed each other as by the time michael reappeared desmond was off and then michael buggered about and eventually left the island before desmond became stable

altho he may not be the spy of course - Ben has a man on the boat, but it could even be the captain, michael could just be there to get back and is hiding as the janitor - the next ep is called 'meet kevin johnson' so hopefully we''ll find out 

it's all very intriguing, the story of the six is very odd - all the bodies were recovered, but 8 weren't in the plane supposedly, six were rescued and became famous, despite the ship not needing to rescue them, and there are two odd dates concerning births 

this is a premier league analysis thread, granted it's in the middle of an important day but i'll edit later because Fulham just beat Everton and made it all very interesting

1. MU - pld 29, 67

2 Ars - pld 30, 67

3 Che - pld 29, 64

4 Liv, pld 30, 59

---- 

5 Eve, 56 (all played 30 unless stated)

----- 

6 Port, 50

7 AV, 49

8 Bla, 46 

9 MCity, (29) 45

10. WH, 43 

11 Tot, (28) 35

12 Boro, 31

Wigan (29) Reading, Newcastle (29) all 28 points - wigan currently leading Bolton however

16 Sunderland 27

17 Birm (29) 26

18 Bol (28) 25

19 Ful 23

Derby 10

ok, so Derby are gone - i actually think theyll break the record for lowest performance ever - they need 15 points to save face, if they play like they did against united yesterday every week they could get a bit more respect - but theyd be up with other relegation hopefuls if they were able to do that so at least you're on the record books derby (probably got lowest gd at -50 anyway)

as for the other relegation teams, it's tight - Boro are the safe marker, which is nice for them, Spurs are almost guaranteed 11th where theyve been for months thanks to that woeful start and their game in hand is chelsea, so they pretty much were the perfect team to win the carling cup as they ain't going anywhere, likewise west ham, but they will just be thankful for points after last season

the rest are screwed, 23-28 is very tight, and yesterday i wouldve been saying 25-28 had fulham not beaten a tired everton side, if 10-man wigan hold on to their lead over bolton today that's a huge result for them and may save them

my score predictor actually predicted safety at a mere 31 points, i probably neglected the fact that relegation fights always get big results, especially as big teams (like spurs, west ham or city) will lose the motivation as they get stuck in the middle, (see fulham-liverpool end of last season)

i had fulham at 23 - which means they won't pick up a point for 8 games, unlikely now, newcastle and wigan at 31 - wigan may have that come the end of today so again unlikely, newcastle i think have a potential max of 10 points available and i was being cynical and gave them 3 of them, meanwhile i was favourable to birmingham, sunderland and reading who have achievable results

but newcastle and fulham? i think newcastle IS a possibility, despite their size, they are very poor and have 3 or 4 must win games, they are shocking, big game tomorrow against birmingham, then fulham is a huge game, nobody wants a draw there - they then have 5 games where they could take points, but noone will be easy - reading and sunderland visit in their big games, their travels look tough but attainable if they can play well for once, close call

Fulham may well recover thanks to the return of McBride and jimmy Bullard, theyve beaten Villa and Everton lately and they may just pull it off, big mountain to climb tho, still at least a win from safety - they have newcastle, derby and sunderland to feed off - a potential 9 points, altho i think theyll get 5 with 2 away draws, then reading liverpool city and pompey are unlikely to give them anything, crucial home tie against birmingham, they are very reliant on newcastle and bolton i feel

Wigan for me have too many goals in them - however they have a lot of tough games ahead - Blackburn, pompey, villa, chelsea, spurs and United last - they have home games against reading and birmingham as essentially their big games, so the win against bolton today is a massive must, and they'll need every point they can scrape from the big boys like they did against arsenal last week, they'll be close to the wire

my prediction saw bolton survive due to newcastle's poor defence, and i think they will be in the fight with newcastle to go down, possibly with fulham the other favourite - their game in hand is United and theyre losing to wigan right now, they then have city at home, potential point there, then villa and arsenal, nothing there - west ham, boro and sunderland are some more points potentially, chelsea and spurs maybe not so - may well depend on boro and west ham, the inconsistent middlers, and a huge game against sunderland at home - sunderland are shit away, haven't won away all season - so a point at least? so four games, 3 at home - i can see 6 points, which is 31, they may sink with newcastle

new boys birmingham have too much to fall i think, newcastle the only really decent home game i think, they really need that win and i think they may get it, then they need to take it to wigan, reading and fulham and a visit from city - think they may get a one or two point buffer from the drop

sunderland is all about who visits: west ham, city and boro - all winnable, oh and arsenal right at the end - that depends on arsenal's title hopes i think -very favourable away draws mean this is the time to start travelling well - newcastle, fulham and bolton are all winnable and hugely important - this is a brilliant relegation battle! sunderland have a lot of chances and should stay up

then there's second season Reading - Birmingham and fulham visit and they're going to newcastle and wigan - all of these could be results for the royals, a visit from spurs could be something and they're last game is at pride park - could be the difference for them, like sunderland they have a favourable draw i feel,

so for relegation, wigan have the toughest fixture list, Bolton and Newcastle are the poorest teams, whilst Fulham have the toughest challenge in points, i think bolton will drop, and for sheer fun newcastle in 18th, although could easily be fulham

i like how there's so many inter-relegation fights in the last 8 games - guess what that means? lots of big teams meet each other too!

as fergie predicts there will be a thrilling race, united have 3 points in hand essentially - but super sunday next week sees them meet liverpool at home, they also greet arsenal in a very important game and travel to the bridge where no-one wins but the blues - so three points? all very boring for the title but any result will be crucial for the top 3 - west ham again visit at the end of the season and will be keen to win at old trafford again, blackburn and villa are threats, and a trip to the riverside (boro) is never predictable, final game against tough wigan at the JJB - all tough but they should see it out to the end

liverpool are effectvely out and need to focus on beating everton to secure 4th, and then beating arsenal in the champ league, they play United and Arsenal in the league but they may have to sacrifice those games - their next five games are united (a), everton (h), arsenal(a)/arsenal(a)/arsenal(h) - then they need to have a run to protect fourth wth blackburn and city visiting - favourable and trips to fulham and birmingham, again favourable - they look like fourth as long as they don't lose to everton at home - then chelsea in the semi of the CL again? we all know where that leads

then there's league hopefuls arsenal, been top most of the season but theyve thrown it away with 3 successive draws i feel - they've gone off the boil, they now have to visit the bridge on 'super sunday', then need to whip bolton, liverpool visit (constantly) and then old trafford where they recently got creamed - that's going to be a league decider i feel, and it looks united - then they have 4 winnables in reading, derby, everton and sunderland

and what about dark horses Chelsea - they're suddenly within 3 points of the top, spurs their game in hand - they also hold the advantage in home games against the top 2 - at least one win would be very good, they also have boro, city, wigan everton bolton and newcastle - the easiest of the top 4 fixture list, they could come up the rear and really threaten United - who cannot slip up

then there's 5th spot, that everton loss against fulham has opened it back up - villa have unfortunately lost the plot lately and really it's down to them to challenge the toffees, portsmouth are most likely to snatch fifth but they are also favourites to win the FA cup, should they do that then everton would still get the UEFA spot
 - however everton have by far the hardest draw with liverpool, chelsea and arsenal and a porbably crucial tie against Villa, Villa really only have that and the united game to worry about so could fight back, and again Pompey could easily overtake Everton, but should they win the Cup the UEFA spot will be between Villa and Everton - all very interesting

City are outsiders, and i think as they are currently losing to spurs they are just about out of it

 however, there is such a thing as the fair play league and they are currently the top english team not in europe - england are currently top of the league which means they get an auto spot, rather than ballots altho that could change (4 red cards this weekend) - should everton get europe then city at present will be our representative in UEFA, as spurs qualified through the carling cup and the top teams (except chelsea obviously) top the league for some reason,so keep it clean, city!

has there ever been a man so unprofessional as Sepp Blatter? he loves to wade into (usually english) domestic matters to say something inane and inflamatory

he recently visited scotland for a conference, (i'm half inclined to think the scots deliberately fed him their views, he's clearly ridiculously impressionable) and decided martin taylor is some sort of nazi and fifa will be looking at martin taylor's  leg-breaking foul and his 3-match ban

umm why? does he not realise that there have been and always will be horrendous challenges in football, they have to be restricted to an acceptable level but they will never be erased from football unless we basically stop tackles, they will be mistimed, they will hit that unfotunate joint - but how often? is one or two a season too many? because i don't see how he intends to 'protect' players as ronaldo wishes

he is actually going on about malicious challenges - nobody thinks it was a malicious challenge, especially as it was 2 minutes in - towards the end of a game you know when players aren't getting along and you know when it's personal - but what taylor did was clearly a mistake, you would have to be incredibly hateful to do that barely before you've touched the ball, even wenger and eduardo accept that - are these not the most criticial people involved here? (save eduardo's mother) 

but blatter seems to want to enact personal revenge on taylor, there are rules in place, he saw red and got a 3 match ban - please tell me all the other leg-breakers were hauled up before lord sepp, who has no real footballing knowledge and treated like a criminal - the man is an idiotic child 

he also made comments about the undermining of the home nations if a gb team competed in the 2012 olympics - again i think the scots had something to do with this - he has specifically said that a one-off gb team wouldn't undermine the home associations, suddenly he goes to scotland and agrees with them and decides it would result in the end of england, scotland, wales and ni - the man is raving 

oh and he also decided to scrap goal line technology (yes, he's been busy) - for 2 line officials - isn't that 4 extra officials around a pitch? and it's more bloody human error! - somehow i think we'll keep trialling the tech and ignore the wise words of sepp and his illustrious reign of terror

the man makes me shiver with rage - the idiotic, inflammatory comments, the absolute lack of professionalism, how is he fit to run fifa? he is like prince philip with actual power 

and that brings me onto ronaldo and dear sir alex - "we lost to pompey, because we weren't protected"

ronaldo has decided he can't use his skills for fear of suffering the same fate as eduardo - note the gross over exagerration and scare mongering in this comment, he's more likely to break his leg collapsing every time a strong breeze blows through manchester

what exactly do they mean by protection? - fergie said the ref was trying to make sure pompey won, ...right...all referees hate you, that's why you are now effectively top of the league and have already beaten three premier league teams who are all probably better than pompey, need i remind sir alex of ever present favouritism at old trafford that we all know exists at the big clubs, fair enough for the fans to point this out - but a manager to actually believe it?

the sheer amount of dives ronaldo has tricked into free kicks, the amount of dodgy disallowed goals - i know managers are blind to their own luck but take it like a man alex - you are actually worse than wenger this time

so what is ronaldo talking about? - he is referring to a body check, which i think is a 50/50 penalty decision, it was very early and if you look very closely ronaldo actually runs into distin who has turned away, distin is not really moving, he's just bigger - he wants protection from this? even if he got the penalty it's hardly worthy of even a yellow - you collided with someone's back - there's no danger there, i didn't see anyone lunging at your knees, which oddly enough rooney did later on and got off with a yellow, as he missed, but no protection from those challenges for man utd players of course 

so short of banning contact i fail to see what protection ronaldo wants - do they not have contact in europe? do defenders just run away from ronaldo so he can show off his skills for fear of the referee? the problem that you see with him is that every time he is tackled, (that is, a perfectly timed challenge that retrieves the ball and may trip the player) he believes he has been fouled, that's not football, and it's not even football in europe, you molly coddled pussy, man up - "i can't play the way i want because i might be that one player a year that gets his leg broken by the big bad defender"- get a grip lad, you think goalkeepers want to let goals in? damn those players who shoot at them and deny them clean sheets

and as for united - the rooney incident i already mentioned, how about scholes' long history of very bad, hot-headed challenges - going to reprimand him? funny how only mighty united and arsenal are the only team who want more 'protection', and only when they drop points, their precious snowflakes can't handle all the abuse, they can only dish it out

or if anyone actually watched the game they may have noticed united squandered about 5 golden chances, some great defending from a great defence and goalkeeper, but an element of fortune and ineptitude from the united frontmen - they failed to score at old trafford, and they think that was all because they shouldve had a pen in the first 10 minutes? it's a common occurence at united obviously, and why they're about to go top

seriously, fergie should have the guts to retract his statements as wenger did, we are all guilty of wearing rose-tinted-glasses but he's taken it way too far and was clearly ranting and raving in a public domain when he should've quietly fumed at the fact that his team didn't deliver, he was blaiming everyone else and having a whinge, as we all do - but it wasn't truthful or objective and shouldn't have been said publicly - there is no way the ref couldve fixed a game where united shouldve been 5-1 up

so to Sepp Blatter: you are a meddling old fool with about as much respect as steve mcclaren, stay the hell out of our game

to Ronaldo: stop being such a pussy and man up

To Fergie: stop being such a sore loser and likewise, man up

can't wait to see robbo's column - 1/3 on it agreeing with all this 

just read an article considering (tony) Blair's place in history - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6636091.stm

they had comments by Ian Kershaw and two biographers, Kershaw is a pretty eminent historian and I tend to agree with him - he's a proper historian, balanced and appreciates historiography, - basically iraq will always be a black spot on a reasonable term

one of the biographers - andrew roberts was a complete blairite and thinks the efficienc of the invasion of iraq, topple of saddam and destruction of the taleban will be his mark - nope

the other guy seemed fair and appreciated that things like iraq and cash for honours die down in history

personally i think he'll generally get a positive history, unless we go super progressive in the next 50 years - iraq will always be there, but passions die down, once we're out, be in 2 years or 20 it just becomes another engagement that was unpopular, but it will start to stand more equally with his other achievements - i think iraq will always be seen as a mistake tho

i'm going to use Disraeli as an example here - his second (ie main) term ended with controversial invasions of afghanistan and south africa (and an economic decline but we'll ignore that for now), that gladstone destroyed him over - however he is generally regarded as one of the greater statesmen for his political ambition and creation of the modern political party, and probably his aggressive foreign policy is admired in some circles, and opposed less 150 years later - despite the fact that his government was reasonably weak in social reform and finiancially disastrous, and ended deeply unpopularly

Blair obviously had a strong economy - much of which was inheritance from thatcher and good management by brown but nevertheless, low unemployment and financial strength generally keeps people happy, in disraeli-an style his social reforms were probably lacking - minimum wage is the great beacon of his social success but what else? few would say health, education, law and order or transport have improved - taxes have risen and little seems to have been accomplished except a more 'presidential' style of government, it is spin and as kershaw says the 'erosion of democracy' that may well feature in Blair's legacy - the creation of new labour and spin tactics will probably have a great impact on history,

not that i'm not so sure that's a totally negative view, changes in politics that stick aren't always so severely condemned  in history if they become the norm, it's a fairly neutral affair so i think he'll survive being put in with eden and chamberlain and for me will go in with disraeli in his contribution to politics rather than to the nation

so iraq and its criticisms will no doubt feature, as will the unpopular attachment to the US and Bush in particular, who will almost certainly go down very badly - in fact he may protect the intelligent, well-meaning Blair somewhat, and with contemporary sentiment fading i think he might get lucky on the whole iraq front

likewise i think to put him straight in with dizzy on all fronts is a little harsh, whilst i think his greatest achievement will be his changes in the political game his foreign policy differed slightly from dizzy, who actually is the definition of 'jingoism' - Blair in fact was very moral and far more 'gladstonian' in foreign affairs, i believe he truly felt it was right to invade iraq and afghanistan - dodgy evidence yes, which will smear him a bit, but i think historians will note this, likewise his pro-europe stance was pretty gladstonian

in fact his greatest achievement was probably the good friday agreement, and northern ireland is something we sometimes overlook, but he achieved a lot there and that may be remembered in the cold light of day in a historian's study

so what i see is

GOOD 

important political consequences (spin tactics, presidential system) - maybe not so much good as important

Success in N.Ireland, maybe scotland too

strong economy 

min wage 

good personal leadership 

BAD

Unpopular war in iraq, association with Bush US

Failure to deliver much social reform

possible bad light on party factionalism, traditional leftie support a pain

erosion of democracy, and rise of nanny state/political correctness

So what we can see is a mixed bag - he won't be an eden - 10 years and a massive electoral landslide will stop that, his electoral success will be on a par with disraeli, but likewise will the failure of any real social improvement and an unpopular foreign policy

perhaps a man with good intentions, who transformed politics, perhaps to the detriment of the english (british) constitution and was hindered by various obstacles in his own party and misled into unpopular territory, therefore successful but lacking real substance